Who Controls the Energy Transition? Insights from London

On March 18, at 25 Bank Street during the J.P. Morgan Clean Tech Stars, investors and industry leaders gathered to answer one fundamental question: what really drives the energy transition?

Among the speakers was Paweł Jarski, CEO of Elemental Group, whose insights reflect the direction in which the entire industry is heading.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the era of freely flowing global raw materials is coming to an end. Countries are beginning to retain critical metals domestically, building their own value chains and limiting exports. As a result, access to key resources is no longer determined solely by market forces, but also by political decisions. The situation is further complicated by the fact that many of these materials – such as platinum group metals – originate from regions burdened with risk, including South Africa and Russia, while emerging hubs like India are only just beginning to establish their position. At the same time, the gap between Europe and the United States is widening: the US moves faster in executing industrial projects thanks to simpler procedures, whereas Europe, despite its ambitious goals, slows down at the regulatory stage.

On top of this comes extreme price volatility. Recent years have shown that the market can shift from boom to declines of up to 60% within a very short period. Instead of trying to predict cycles, companies are increasingly focusing on long-term resilience and risk management. Technology is becoming a key differentiator in this shift – from AI tools that analyze metal content in materials based on images, to advanced recycling processes. At the same time, China’s advantage cannot be ignored: in processing, particularly in “black mass”, it remains significantly ahead of Europe.

Does this mean we are entering a new commodity supercycle? Not necessarily in the traditional sense. A more accurate view is that we are moving into a new, more complex reality – driven by growing demand, but also shaped by tensions, risks, and geopolitical dependencies. One thing, however, is certain: the energy transition is no longer happening only in labs or at the level of technology. Its foundation lies in metals, and control over them is becoming one of the most critical elements of the global economic landscape.